The Wolf Game - SS Black Swan - Day 6 - Everybody Dies, Traitors Win

General
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My reasoning:
Nobody was injected with poison yesterday in the med bay --> There is only one or no wolf in the med bay
(That’s complicated - theory behind that is quoted at the end of this post.

If there is only one wolf in med bay then voting for a med bay crewmember has a high chance of failure.
But it raises the hit chance on the “not med Bay crew” - most likely two wolfs hiding in a group of three players…

So my options for today:
Enginish - has done lots of crazy stuff - wolfs would most likely try to keep a lower profil
The_Sane - unknown
Pendrokar - he started that magic word thing, maybe human

–> That’s how you came on the top of my list

And here is the med bay theory post. Directly quoted out of last nights med bay discussion:

483

Took me a moment to work my head around that but I get where you are coming from, good analysis.

It doesn’t completely eliminate the possibility of there being 2 wolves… a wolf voting to poison another wolf doesn’t mean much if they know they can block it later, or they just wanted to put on a show, but that isn’t too likely.

In this case my prime suspect is Pendrokar. He might have known the exact role name but if the wolves were aware of it this is meaningless.

Pendrokar

484

Yes, with my first post actually:

Conclusion: Not loyal crew. If The_Sane doesn’t know as a human then there is no point keeping it a secret anyway.

485

@xamino, can you add something to the conversation?

I feel that it’s way too quiet if sane is a wolf, unless of course there were only 3 of them and are now only 2, in that case they don’t have the numbers to oppose and it’s not worth risking the last wolf. Or sane is human.

Ark, did seem to reason with there only being 7 of us and only 3 wolves and on top of it claimed that they didn’t know the med-bay could kill. Maybe just a well thought through diversion, maybe not, maybe a bit of both.

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My thoughts on the remaining players:

  • cybercritic: I’d tend to think he is human. Or LyskTrevise.
  • xamino: Obviously perfectly loyal and very human.
  • Nos_Fi: I don’t think a wolf would have posted any reasoning about there being at most one wolf in the medical bay at night. Probably human. Plus he warned Lysk of the try at his life which a wolf wouldn’t have done, not like that.
  • Enginish: No opinion.
  • LyskTrevise: See Cybercritic. But did warn us that he’d deactivate the med bay with the generator, again something I don’t think a wolf would have done (wolf would have just gone ahead with it and let us argue all night).
  • The_Sane: No opinion.
  • Pendrokar: Fishy for the way he has acted, although nothing solid in my opinion.

So I’m going to return to the medical bay. Not to kill but to dissect whomever we lynch tonight. So comparing my suspect list against cybercritic’s and Pendrokar’s list I am more inclined to think that cybercritic is a possible wolf. His list has more people as wolf-ish than I can agree with while Pendrokar’s aligns more with my viewpoint.

For comparison:

I disagree with cybercritic on the following points: pendrokar being human because he is a replacement (I don’t think it works that way), sane for being a wolf because he dislikes RNG (opinions aside he had a clear stand against it from the beginning), nos (being new doesn’t make him a wolf just because he plays a bit differently).

Ninja’d: but I don’t think you’ll like what I have to say cybercritic. :stuck_out_tongue:

487

Well, you are wrong with at least one thing, I’m not a wolf. Count my wolves, there are 4, you don’t have 1?

Also, no need to go back to med-bay, you are already there. :wink:

488

But wasn’t it damaged…? Ah no, just deactivated, right. Thanks for the warning!

All right, then I’ll go somewhere else too… lemme see… Helicopter Hangar. So that I can check what may have actually have happened last night.

Definitely a problem. Though I do have 4 possible candidates: you, enginish, the_sane, pendrokar. If Arkenbrien was human it would fit pretty well. If was a wolf you’re obviously human. So how about we dissect Arkenbrien next night (if we’re still around) to check on you. Which means I have to vote for someone else in the meantime.

Enginish for not being very active today.

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I don’t see how you will “check” on me with a dissection, I don’t know if Ark was a wolf, if he wasn’t we are in deep shit right now.

Don’t feel like doing the maths, but i get a feeling that we’ll need to be injecting and shooting people tonight/tomorrow if we work under the assumption that ark was not a wolf, maybe you can run the numbers?

490

As I previously stated we have 2 unknown lynches. If both were wolves or even just one we still have a chance if we lynch a correct person tonight. If we survive until tomorrow vetting you will provide us with additional information for the end game.

I’m not saying it is 100% likely or that it will work, but it is the best I can offer. I have as little information at my disposal as any other loyal human at this stage probably.

491

I feel like I have done what I could, working under the worst possible assumption and maybe bought us a day with my action, you are obviously an optimist and your suspect list shows it.

I’m off, let me ping @Enginish for you.

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I’ve been pinged! Had class all day but I’ll post my thoughts in an hour or so. Stand by!

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Here are my thoughts:

Sane could have downed the helicopter last night. This would have lost us the game.

For those unclear as to how that could have happened, he had access to Radar, and was in sole control of AAA. This means that all he had to do was night kill me to remove me from CIC and then down the helicopter at his leisure. This, coupled with his behavior, has removed him from my suspect list.

Second: If Pendrokar were a wolf, he would not have given me so much freedom with choosing the passenger. I chose the protect target with basically 10 minutes left in the night, and Pendrokar didn’t press me for action. This is remarkably un-wolf-like. Coupled with the fact that loyal crew is indeed the secret phrase (for those who were wondering) Pendrokar is also on my human list.

Cybercritic didn’t end the game by shooting someone. This is significant. This implies that he is either human, or that there were only 3 (or less) wolves at the start of the day. Since the only deaths that haven’t been confirmed humans prior to today have been Kreydis and Noblebrutus, I find it very probable that Cyber is a human.

Now, endgaming!
There are 2 scenarios.
First, that there are 3 wolves alive right now. In order to win, we must either guess correctly right now or we have to successfully use both the helicopter bay and the weapon locker/med bay to kill all remaining wolves (impossible). In this case, 3 of the following are wolves: Nos_Fi, LyskTrevise, Xamino, Cybercritic. 75% odds of success, more if we assume Cybercritic has a low likelihood of being a wolf.
Second, that there are 2 wolves alive right now. This is the more likely one in my mind. This means we have some extra lee-way. My two candidates as of right now are… Xamino and Lysk.

Here’s my plan.

Kill LyskTrevise. He’s alone on the propulsion system, which means that he can block every system on the ship if he wants. This would be bad.

We need to prevent the wolves from infiltrating the helicopter bay. Since it acts as a jailer, it can prevent people from voting on systems and can be catastrophic in wolf hands, enabling them to, for instance, kill people easily with med-bay. Very high priority. I’d recommend only allowing 2 people on the system.

We need to secure another gun from the weapons locker. Assuming Lysk wasn’t lying about the desperate action, only humans can do this. High priority.

Crew Quarters is still marginally useful, I suppose.

Sonar is borderline useless at this point.

Debatable whether med-bay should kill someone tonight.

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Editing: Xamino. There was some confusion about who’s on what system exactly :stuck_out_tongue:

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As engine said, sane could have ended the game last night if he were a wolf, so I don’t think he’s a good lynch target. I do think Xamino is, because he voted for cyber and there is no fucking way Martin would let a wolf have access to the gun. I don’t believe it.

So xamino

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Also repairing helicopter bay.

497

Helicopter Bay I guess too.

Sonar seems worthless and CQ probably as well.

498

Welp. I guess xamino…

Crew Quarters (its not entirely useless)

499

The Day Is Over

After the shocking destruction of the shipboard AI by cybercritic with his stolen gun the dwindling crew spent the rest of the day desperately fighting fires, making repairs and manually calibrating sensitive systems. Most doubted that the ship would even survive the night without their trusty shipboard AI to control the combat systems!

However, this didn’t stop them debating amongst themselves as to who was responsible for the death of Dekaku. Every member of the crew threatened almost every other member of the crew and it nearly came to blows between the group that wanted to kill Xamino and the group that wanted to kill The_Sane. As the sun finally fell below the horizon both groups backed down - they’d already killed one traitor today, that would do for now

Tied Vote - Nobody Is Lynched
It Is Now Nighttime - Posting In The Main Thread Is Not Allowed

Systems messages have been sent out - contact me if you’re not in a system thread and think you should be.

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Once again the combat alarm woke the crew from their slumber - high altitude bombers were closing in on the ship! The crew ran to their combat stations only to discover that the Combat Information Center had suffered some kind of power failure and the RADAR had overloaded in the night! As they ran back up to the bridge in panic to report to commander Trevise they breathed a sigh of relief as they heard the AAA guns open fire - at least something was working to protect them.

As the crew exited onto the deck and began climbing up to the bridge the collision alarm screamed out. Enginish and Pendrokar grabbed on tight to the safety railings and watched helplessly as the scout chopper plummeted out of the sky, shot down by friendly fire, and exploded on the fore deck. Burning jet fuel splashed across the deck, dangerously close to a rack of Anti-Air missiles. Thick black smoke engulfed the pair of crewmen and they stumbled the rest of the way up the stairs to the bridge.

They entered the bridge, coughing and spluttering as they recovered their breath. Commander Lysk, flanked by chief engineer The_Sane, turned around and smiled warmly at them “Gentlemen, I’ve just got off the radio from high command. They tell me I’ll receive a medal of valour for my work here”. Enginish, still gasping for breath, looked confused and asked, “What work? I thought central command still refused to talk to us until we had killed all the… traitors…” a look of horror crossed his face as it dawned on him, “it was you… all along…”.

Just as the pair tried to jump to their feet to kill the traitors The_Sane casually pressed the button he had been resting his finger on - detonating the anti-personnel mine he had rigged just below the bridge entryway, shredding both of the crewmembers instantly. Now there was only one left, they could really take their time savouring the long and painful interrogation they had planned for cybercritic…

Game Over - Traitors Win

Congratulations The_Sane and LyskTrevise

I’ll come back tomorrow with my usual analysis of how I think the game design went this time, and potential changes I will make next time. In the meantime feel free to criticise everything I did wrong or to suggest things you’d like to see in future games!

Edit: Gamestate Spreadsheet

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