The Wolf Game - SS Black Swan - Day 6 - Everybody Dies, Traitors Win

General
202

I’ve rethought my position somewhat and I believe The_Sane has a point. If we corral everyone into just one or two systems, then the game stagnates. The humans end up with no secrets they can keep from the wolves, who can just play it safe knowing there will be no curveballs as far as subsystem usages go (since they know how people are voting and what the systems do).

I’d be in favor of having just one person on some systems. It’s likely that the wolves will get their own systems if we do this, but they won’t be able to do anything drastic since we know who voted for what.

It will be more chaotic, which means it will be harder for the wolves to hide themselves. The humans will get more information faster and will be able to do things without the wolves knowing, which is impossible if we stick to only 1-2 systems.

So, uh, yeah. I vote we scatter like roaches when someone turns on the lights.

SONAR. No me gusta submarine attacks, which I feel may be coming if we just had an air force hit.

For those who don’t know, Civ is a pretty darn good game. All hail the glorious immortal Incan empire.

2 Likes
203

I don’t believe we have anything to go on today to whom to vote for, so for now I’ll stay with no vote. I believe we lack necessary evidence to lynch anyone in good faith currently, and I’ve gambled with random kills before and it didn’t work out… (bang!) :sweat:

The Bartender had replenished his stock of alcohol after his bar had been mysteriously emptied over night. Now he was back to polishing glasses, watching the discussion through his thick eyebrows.

1 Like
204

Really? Yes they will, because the’ll just lie about the function of the system and then just use the real function of it. And they could do it at any time without us having a clue because we think we have all the information when in truth we now have to mistrust every information.

I never seen that more chaotic made something more clear, like ones intention.

At least pick something Lysk proposed and get with a compromise, going rogue is declining any cooperation. I don’t see how that helps us.
We allready got the Propulsion moving which gives us a little edge over submarines. Leveling it out with AAA would be a good Idea in my opinion.

That’s why I’m going with AAA for now. I’ll probably switch to level out another system later on though.

I like Xaminos approach to the Lynch, but it won’t help us. I have to disagree that it’s totally blind. The amount of back and forth makes me a leery of the participants of said back and forth. I’m voting for The_Sane. The reasoning for his votes just don’t convince me and this aggresive voting neither. Was it just a bait to see how he reacts? If it was I will probably reconsider.

We are probably dealing with top class wolves here. I really really don’t like how yesterday ended and if the day ended now … I would not like that either.

205

Since my head is on the line, for doing nothing wrong, let me share my thinking.

First off, the possibility of me being a wolf and since I’m linked to Topper because of the Lysk vote, I will include him too in the explanation. There are four possibilities.

Topper and me are are wolves
If this was true, the best action for us would be for Topper to vote for somebody that already had a human vote on them (and there were 5 people with only a single vote) and then for me to switch my vote for that person, this would give us 3 votes, by using 2 wolves. This didn’t happen.

Topper is not a wolf and I am
If this was true, I had no reason to vote for Lysk and complicate things, if I voted for Topper, he would have 3 votes on him. This did not happen.

Topper is a wolf and I’m not, or, Topper is not a wolf and I’m not a wolf, there is no need to explain these two as in both cases I’m not a wolf and proven wrong above are the other two possibilities that assume I’m a wolf.

Crew Quaters
This systems is very powerful in human hands, it’s a Guardian and Seer role put together, it can be used for offense and defense by the humans, it can even reveal more than one wolf with a single use. Let me explain. In human hands, “bugging” a human and letting the wolves know in the public channel, makes that person protected, since any wolves that vote for that human will be revealed. Targeting a wolf, will reveal a wolf if he votes to kill any human. Targeting a human without wolf knowledge can also reveal a wolf if they vote for him. The only use I can see for wolves is to “lock” a human from repairing other systems. Due to all this, if there is a human in CQ, it is almost certain that wolves will put one of them in there too. This system is nearly useless for wolves and very powerful in human control.

Piggybacking
The most simple and obvious voting pattern for a wolf is to vote for a human that already has a human vote on him, this way they get one free vote on a human, if needed and in trouble they can pile onto that vote, in essence with four wolves they get at least 5 votes.

206

No. They wont. Such a strategy is extremely risky given the fact that at any point in the game the system might be damaged, and a re-repair by other players instantly exposes the lie.

Having been one of the last remaining humans that got wiped out on ISS Relatively Fast I am completely against the idea of any type of forced RNG system so my vote on cyber was a snap decision in response to his post. Thanks for giving me a reason to vote for someone else though I guess, arguing so strongly for a system which in my opinion will just lead to stagnant systems and safe wolf kills.

That actually makes sense. I should probably switch over.

Lomsor
AAA

207

I thought an association list might give us some clues, I will try to list all associations and if they are positive, or negative or neutral in order of appearance.

Day 1
Skyenist-Ark (neutral-RP)
Lysk-Xamino (neutral-RP)
Topper-Xamino (neutral-RP)
Ark-Terran (neutral-RP)
King-Jack (neutral-RP)
critic-Ark (neutral-RP)
Sane-Mattk (neutral-RP)

Mattk-Lysk (negative-vote)
Xamino-Kreydis (neutral-RP)
Lysk-Topper (negative-vote)
Mattk-Topper (negative-vote)
Xamino-Kreydis (positive-no vote)
critic-Lysk (negative-vote)
skyenist-critic (negative-vote)
Topper-Lysk (negative-vote)
Lysk-critic (negative-vote)
Topper-Lysk (positive-no vote)
Topper-Kreydis (negative-vote)
Skyenist-Kreydis (negative-vote)
King-Kreydis (negative-vote)

Night
Lysk-Lysk (positive-system vote)
King-Lysk (positive-system vote)

Day 2
Sane-critic (negative-vote)
critic-Sane (negative-vote)
Lysk-critic (negative-vote)
critic-Topper (negative-vote)
Topper-critic (negative-vote)
Xamino-Xamino (neutral-no vote)
Lomsor-Sane (negative-vote)
Sane-Lomsor (negative-vote)

I don’t know what happened in Propulsion systems thread.

1 Like
208

Realized it some time after posting. I always assumed civillian helicopter, not military one -_-

209

I think I have shown that if the choice is between me and Topper, he is more likely to be a wolf than me, care to remove your vote?

210

My repairvote: Medical Bay
We need as much information as we can get. And we need it to be reliable.
Two persons is not reliable enough. Especially if one of them is in danger of not surviving the day…

Cybercritic, the Crew Quarters can uncover if someone does something that he doesn’t tell us. But it’s not good at directly spotting spys.
If you target a spy it will only reveal him if he votes for a kill AND if there is no other reason for the victim to be on the list.
The spys can easily adapt to that.
The Crew Quarters are only valuable to us if we crew it with two proven humans or one random human that we can keep alive through the night.
I can’t think of something that would make that happen at the moment.

Would be more interested in what the CIC and the Weapons Locker do. Weapons Locker could be a Guardian role…

211

If a human is chosen as a target by CQ, all the wolves that vote for that human will be revealed, having a wolf in CQ protects the human target, hence Guardian, with no wolf in CQ, humans can protect 2 people, one they choose and another they announce in the public thread…

212

The wolves don’t need to vote. They can discuss their target and then select one of them to do the kill vote.
If they pick someone that has a reason to be on the list the list will be not very valuable…

213

@cybercritic , how exactly do I have to read this association list? I’ve never seen one.

Being still alive as a human on ISS Relatively Fast (albeit frozen) should make me the even better at judging the best strategy by your logic.
Yes, we have different opinions, but I just want to remind you that it wasn’t my idea, I just really like it. That’s why I’m vouching for it. Support isn’t strong tough so I’m open for a compromise, as I said before. It looks like most don’t want to cooperate tough and want to go back to just distrusting everyone. Great work (slow clap) …

These knee jerk reactions don’t help anyone, voting just without intention or clue or even instinct or just don’t laying it out to us (which doesn’t make any difference to not having any) also just creates safe kills for the wolves.

So your vote wasn’t a bait.
Because my vote was. And your reaction isn’t indicative of helping us at all. Did you check up on posts concerning cybercritic like you said you would? Will you do that tomorrow too? Switching to the next best human target?

This smells very bad, I feel wolves are actively manipulating both the system and lynching opinion of everyone.

214

I would also like to hear @LyskTrevise again on how significant he finds that no one follows his idea, where yesterday most did.
He did seemingly accept the abolishment of RNG and 2 way split and put forth a 4 way split but didn’t comment on the unwillingness of people to follow trough.

215

It’s not really a science and I named it association list, but it can give clues about raw data. For instance, multiple positive interactions hint at a positive association between people involved, since this is a wolf game most stuff is negative. You can also just check interactions in general, the presence or absence of them, two people never interacting or two people constantly interacting. There are also linked associations, a 3 or 4 person pack could be associated with each other indirectly, positively or negatively, while other people might not have those. You can also see patterns and reactions if you take the time and votes into account, for instance is X always reacting to a vote on Y. Also you can craft a simple hypothesis and see if it breaks as you go through the event. It’s not much data at the moment, still there might be something there.

At the end of the day, in essence it’s just a list of what has happened and between who in a single post, just facts.

216

No-one voted negatively in the Propulsion thread.
Also, bear in mind Sky was in that thread, and got killed by the wolves last night.

More later, got to go do some shopping

1 Like
217

Creating human-sided information using chaos isnt a good strategy, you can assume the wolves are manipulating that chaos and information. I think people have caught on by now that if the wolves arent forced to take overt action its very simple for them to just act completely like a human until they’ve won, often with very slight pushes neccasarry to keep the whole wolf team alive. If we force control of the systems we can pretty safely make that strategy a death sentence in the long term.

So, I still think we should go for an all in on one or two strategy. Im voting for the medical bay for now, and Lysk because i still find his posts suspicious.

2 Likes
218

Additional. No one revealed what Propulsion does. And it doesn’t look like a coincidence.
I’m pretty certain we have a wolf in there anyway.

An active Propulsion reduces the risk from submarine attacks.
The desperate action will damage the engine and block all actions of AAA and SONAR

I can confirm that everyone in propulsion voted positively yesterday.

1 Like
219

I guess I assumed someone else had done it already. And might I point out that you didn’t reveal propulsion straight away either… coincidence? (yes, it probably is). There’s 6 guys on it and we only repaired 2 systems yesterday. Not a great deductive leap to assume that one of them is a wolf.

And you missed out the critical failure info. Critical fail increases chance of sub attack every day.

220

After that I forgot. Probably coincidence no one revealed it either, yes … sorry, probably my paranoia increasing.

I just wanted to add that to justify revealing the information as it looks like some people want to go the route of holding back information in general.

221

Seems Lysk sort of revealed the Propulsion info in the replied post by referencing the linked file.