I believe he’s basing that off of what has been seen with many KS campaigns.
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Yes, last day is about 60% of the first day, this is common for most KS campaigns, calculation has it decaying exponentially to 6 days before the end.
Starting the end push 5-6 days before might be a bit generous, it might be just the last 3 days. That still makes it nicely over the goal.
$11250
$22500
$45000We only had such a good first day because of the amazing community. If you could only count new backers then the end push should be way smaller.
All kickstarters start that good because they have a community that waits till they launch.
That’s strange, the only other kickstarter that I had known would happen and had people waiting for it was Star Citizen. All others seemed to come out of nowhere and that everyone heard about it just then.
A few quick examples, Elite Dangerous, Descent Underground, Double Fine’s Massive Chalice, Shenmue 3, there must be many more. All are projects with pre-existing communities/fan base.
/edit
One last prediction, a very low key one, 40% of the first day on the last day, starting 3 days before the end of KS (today).
$7500
$15000
$30000