I:B Kickstarter First Day Need

So, I make use of www.kicktraq.com from time to time, mainly when it’s not sure if the KS will achieve it’s goals. Interesting thing about the observations is that all the campaigns that I have seen follow the Exponential Decay functions when it comes to pledge amounts. So out of curiosity I have drawn up a graph that takes this into account and so estimates the pledge amount needed on the first day of the IBS KS.

Function for the graph is (f) = 125000 * e^(-x * 0.25) + 500

That roughly translates into that $125k is needed on the first day for a $500k goal, and assumes the minimum daily pledge amount of $500, the rest is the curve function.

Below is a graph produced by @NavyFish, it uses the same formula to fit a $300k goal, interesting thing is that around $64k is needed on the first day to make the $300k goal, we had $75k, however this formula is just a rough estimate.

These graphs below are fitted to existing data, adds a end-game push and assumes a daily pledge amount of $3.5k. (made on day 4)

I tried to fit the numbers above in such a way to show the minimum required to reach the goal, average daily amounts could be lower or higher and the end push could be greater or smaller.

The ones below include actual pledges with an end push finishing at ~$40k on the last day. (made 6 days before end of KS)


How does this graph compare to Star Citizen’s continuous pledging campaign?

Star Citizen is a somewhat of a phenomenon, it dampened the decay curve significantly and even had an increase of pledge amounts near the end of its KS campaign. Elite Dangerous also had something similar happen to its KS, an increase towards the end.

I’m guessing that is because of the hype not dying down, but rather increasing, due to their high profile and main stream media attention.

Even with building up hype beforehand I expect the curve more to look like this:

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He asked for $50k and got $180k, try and find a project that asked closer to $500k and recent, it makes the data more solid. We were throwing money at KS in '012.

I think those curves are directly linked to how popular/well known the Kickstarter or project is: beforehand, at the star and how much the word is spread during that campaign.

This directly influences when and how much people pledge and is, in my opinion, also quite scalable to a certain degree.

The old fans / potential fans may not be in touch with the uprising Space Game industry as much as with other things on the internet. And I think LTs curve shows that.

Can someone remind me what Elite:Dangerous did on day two to grab most of the demand in one push?

If anything Infinity is closer to ED in what you are describing, a huge base of old players that have heard of INS over many years passed. LT didn’t have any community to speak off when he launched the KS.

Elite Dangerous went public and a hoard of old timers woke up and pledged.

What I’m afraid of is this:

or this

I know that Human Resources had a quite big following. I expected it to fail.

How big was Strafes following before day one? That’s something I’d like to know. I’ll go look at their forum or something. If they came out of the blue too, that means word spreads to most potential buyers in less then 10 days.

I know it has not a lot to do with the gameplay … but all the witty humor and reference all over their KIcstarter and World Wide Web HTML Document should just be rewarded.

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My point of including STRAFE was that they had “modest” media attention for a nearly unknown game, also they have one of the best KS videos out there and they were a KS staff pick. I’m not sure about their community, probably non-existent, maybe you can post about that after your expedition.

I don’t think the last two are good examples.

Human Resources funding stalled because of unsatisfied Planetary Annihilation players, who Kickstarted Uber’s last campaign. It really had nothing to do with the game itself. So Human Resources campaign has no bearing on Infinity.

First time I have heard of STRAFE. Seems similar to the idea of Brutal Doom. Though while I found their 90s ad-like video fun… until the kid dying, which was too much even for me.

I think a more similar campaign to upcoming Infinity: Battlescape is Project Stealth, which also was a unique* multiplayer only game with a long time following in ModDB. They asked for just 90k, but got only 187 backers.
Project Stealth Failed Kickstarter Campaign

* Haven’t played Splinter Cell series.


Interesting figures …

Somewhere around here lies a thread with some lengthy discussions as to what should I-N offer or backers and their tiers.

I think one of the main errors for “Project Stealth” was to suggest too many pledge tiers. 1€ to gain the possibility to comment and get dev’s scoop ? Ridiculous.
If the game is intended to be sold at, say, 40€, make the first tier below that on 20% discount or whatever.

Mugs, T-shirts, posters, … all those things are good but only if you can afford it, which means even higher required fund (or backers at least). In-game vanity fair is a better way in my opinion to reward a valuable backer.

Anyway, I’m sure I-N has already thought of that. Let’s hope they convince people that their game is both different from the other space games (without explicitly stating it) and is very worthy (say it multiple times for better effects :smiley: ).

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Here is a list of funded games on Kickstarter in the $100k-$1mil mark, I don’t really see anything that is directly comparable with IBS and the amounts seem to be peaking in '012.


Well, Infinity has an all caps vaporware tail that stretches back a decade, I think that stigma is about as large as Uber’s failure of their community with PA… Hence the comparison.

They meant “comment on Kickstarter pages”, which users can only do if they backed the project. Though yeah, I guess for those new to Kickstarter it should be pointed out right in the pledge tier.

I wonder if there is any change in funding if a game, that is being Kickstarted, uses an established game engine instead of a custom one. Limit Theory’s Josh wrote his game engine from scratch.

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It seems like the upsurge towards the end of the Kickstarter only happens when a project is within 25% of it’s goal. The psychological split seems to be between giving extra pledges to a project that is destined to fail opposed to taking the decision to help a nearly successful project over the finish line.

Examples of this phenomena in games I’ve backed are Sui Generis ( http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/1473965863/sui-generis/#chart-exp-trend ) and to a lesser extent Chaos Reborn ( http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/1206403106/chaos-reborn-from-the-creator-of-the-original-x-co/#chart-exp-trend ).

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Wow, Sui Generis had basically no hype buildup before the start of their KS and they made it on the last day, trending below the whole time, good old '012…

Here are two examples of recent successful KS games that have the pattern discussed in the OP.


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Infinity will be my first kickstarter participation. Honnestly, I worry about it because I don’t hear people speak about Infinity. I speak a lot of Infinity to a lot of people but nobody knows it. Why there is no media cover about this game ? Is this a choice ?

Yes, it is indeed a choice. They fear that an early hype will die down as people wait and get accustomed to the idea, and leave a taste of vaporware. So they are building ammo while keeping a low profile. A short time before the campaign, their plan is to start out and get visibility, so when the Kickstarter campaign arrives, hype is high (and can be capitalized on immediately). In addition, they also prepare stuff to show during the campaign, as you have to show many updates for it to work.

So don’t worry about not hearing about Infinity, it’s all part of the plan.

GG. I don’t know if their calendar will permit it, but I would love that infinity become the “Big game” of a big event like E3 and I know it has the potential !

You know infinity was brought up in star citizens 10 for the chairman asking Chris Roberts why he doesn’t he use infinity engine etc. He claimed it wasn’t “tried and known” or something software etc. Elite dangerous was co sponsored PR wise from the attention star citizen was getting as Chris supported elite dangerous. Could ask if they’ll announce help announce inifinty like elite dangerous. Any marketing and getting word out is hard. Best attention toward inifinity in short term I think would be getting it plastered in front of the millions of steam users. But steam takes royalties.