to be more pessimistic, in games section : 704/13326 (~5.28%) campaigns that failed had reached between 41% and 60% of their initial goal. Also, only 9.4% of the projects that failed had reached at least 41% of their initial goal.
So, if Battlescape has near 1 chance by (per ? of ?) 10 to be a failed project that reached at least 41% of its initial goal, it has 9 chances by 10 to be a project that didn’t failed after have reached at least 41% of its initial goal.
Ah gawd. Please stop. So much inaccurate interpretation. 
Edit: I failed too. lol
I must be tired but I don’t see where I fail.
Edit : I failed too, you’re right
Ok, spent a few minutes working on this, hope it’s right.
19861 projects total in gaming
6535 of game projects succeeded
590 of game projects got over $100k and succeeded
1252 of game projects that made over 41% failed
Going on total games.
6535 + 1252 = 7787
6535 / 7787 = 0.839
**83% of games in total that made over 41% succeeded**
Going on games that made over $100k. (590)
1252 + 590 = 1842
590 / 1842 = 0.32
**32% of games that got over $100k and made over 41% succeeded**
We don’t know how many games actually asked for over $100k, so the last figure should be higher.
Also 78 % of projects that reached 20 % of their goal succeeded.
32.9% of games succeeded
only 0.76% of games reached over 1M$
Maybe you should update the OP?
You are extrapolating on projects after the entire funding period, though.
I’ve seen a lot of Kickstarters and if they are near their goal in the last week, or near major stretch goals people want, there is almost always a strong “push” at the end that raises as much or more than the first day raised.
There was also pretty bad marketing that the community is picking up the slack on which has given a bad start, and it can only really be better.
I’m super confident it’ll raise the 300k. But I’m sure everyone wants it to hit much higher than that, which will take more work.
Excluding the first day, we have an average of 15k a day so far. Even if we get an average of just half that during the rest of the campaign we would still have more than 300k at the end, and that is also excluding the last push.
Check the average of backings per day, provided by kickstarter.
I find it very interesting to see that a small peak at around 5 days into the campaign is a common thing, probably related to a first weekend or something. Just like the peak we just had(though reddit certainly helped).
Based on that graph alone we can see that we probably won’t have half the average of 15k during the middle of the campaign, which would be enough for minimum funding. The final peak might get us to 400k, but Im not so sure of that.
Of course all that changes if we end up getting an article on the first page of gamestop or something… But I wouldn’t count on it.
Source: https://www.kickstarter.com/blog/trends-in-pricing-and-duration
My stats spreadsheet, it autoupdates in realtime:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r7PIyFLtbN1tprjgBaPtiHevwyfjueOhgaI-lnvTwXE/edit?usp=sharing
Any ideas on how to make it smaller?
From kicktraq this auto updates(i think) the average pledges per day needed until the end, also showing the day’s current total(not sure when a day starts though). IB has been on third place on that site for a couple days now. It is a good place to follow the progress.
updated.
I must verify something about your 32%
Did we break this thread, keeps going up a few posts?
Could you please delete most of the empty lines from that spreadsheet? I think it makes the forum go crazy.
I’ve tried, it doesn’t go away, i don’t know how to completely remove them, “deleting” only empies them.
Maybe it would load faster then tough … just a guess tough.
How did you calculate that?
failed projects : 163102
failed projects that reached between 41% and 60% : 6230
6230/163102 : 3.82%
my sentence is wrong sorry : i’ve edited it.
projects succeeded : 94648
projects
Go back into google docs, select the numeric row header you want to start deleting from. Then scroll down, and shift click row 999 or whatever the last row is. Now, right click the last row of your selection and in the context menu that opens up, click the “Delete rows 6- 999” button. Do this for columns as well and then paste the new, smaller spreadsheet as an edit to this post.
I think your opening statement is somewhat misleading and the maths behind it, but it’s your thread.
That stat ignores the fact that the campaign might fail after 60% has been reached.