Some one posted one of these in a forum thread and I thought it was kind of cool.
How are the “optomist” ( ), “realistic” and “reserved” trend calculated? 95% of success when the “realistic” amount is below the minimum funding?
Why is it different from kicktraq? (I partially know the answer, but still asking)
Looks like “success likelihood” is the realistic amount over goal…
There should be a spike during the last few days, and the hourly rate is probably gonna stabilize to around the last two days average @joshuakuehn, backers too.
@Tjafaas The trends are calculated using the average hourly income expanded linearly to the end of the kickstarter. That is highly optimistic and very similar to what kicktraq does on their website. While I would love that to happen beyond measure, a linear growth pattern isn’t to common. All the trends contain a non linear element that is composed from the suppression data and a portion of the amount remaining. As time progresses, the values calculated should approach a higher degree of accuracy.
@cybercritic That’s pretty much what its doing. A nice low tech ratio, but I am thinking now that its name is a little confusing. I shall change it. Any suggestions?
A large spike in either new backers or total funding will redirect the estimates upwards noticeably. The current estimates use a logarithmic decay that will push the the trends down towards the current funding amount as time progresses. Should be fairly shockproof, but I will be frequently checking up on it today and revising it bit by bit as my running data grows.
Max update time is approximately every 2 hours.
this tracker seems way more likely than the other trackers i have seen.
@ihategigamo Thanks! I really tried to take my exuberant optimism out of it. I do wish it was trending higher, but that’s all the more reason to push our existence out into the rest of the world!
At the current rate its going it wont hit the targeted 300,000. the majority of our current 150,000 came from long time followers of the project that jumped on right at the start of the first day, since then progress has been very slow and it will remain slow until the last few days. At which point the last few day influx likely wont be enough to carry it past 300,000.
We need publicity and the issue here is all this should have been done before the kickstarter went live. The devs were in a great situation were they could invite people to test the game weeks before the kickstarter launch.
Gigamo I know its a lot to read through but I encourage you to read the entire thread and similar threads. This has been brought up multiple times and even answered by flavien himself.
The answer: They have been. They are a small indie studio that’s mostly being ignored. They have been giving interviews. They’ve been doing all of it and continue to do so. If you want more to happen I suggest you take a look at the evangelism thread and see how you can help by messaging this websites or clearing up misconceptions.
uu you reused my spreadsheet
I was trying to find a way to get data directly from website, the money integer linked to the cell.
i had to learn some Xquery and Xpath to do it, but your post inspired me to try. Since I just finished my major midterms I’ve had tons of free time so it’s been a fun diversion. Much more so than hitting F5 on the kickstarter page.
It updates without the use of an F5 key.
Shhhhhh, I needed something to do…